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When to expect 50 $/kWh Li-ion battery prices?

Battery event 29th to 30th September, 2021 - Lyon

When I constructed the first Price Experience Curve for Li-ion batteries 10 years ago in 2014 for a publication in the Proceedings of the PVSEC in Amsterdam, I concluded a price of 100 $/kWh as very realistic to happen in the 2020s. Most technology people including many experts from the battery community did not believe this to happen so quickly - if at all. With the quick global increase of e-mobility- even in Germany - the cumulative volume of such batteries increased accordingly...

Download: 210929_Lyon_avicenne_50€ per kWh LIB price.pdf

 

Kurzfristige Vorteile und langfristige Notwendigkeit für die Speicherung des PV-Stroms

Zeitschrift "Plus" 9/2016 Seite 1765 - 1770

Die Veröffentlichung basiert auf einer Präsentation, die ich am 12. April auf der VDMA-Jahrestagung in Frankfurt gehalten habe und die in der nachfolgenden Datei angeschaut werden kann: Download: 160412_VDMA_Jahrestagung.pdf

Bei dem schrittweisen Aufbau der Speicherkapazitäten für Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien gibt es kurzfristige Vorteile für eine Volkswirtschaft: Erhöhung des Eigenverbrauchs lokal hergestellten erneuerbaren Stromes, insbesondere PV und Entlastung der Verteilnetze.

Um langfristig die Stromerzeugung mit Erneuerbaren Energien – vorrangig PV und Wind – zu jedem Zeitpunkt eines Jahres sicher stellen zu können, wird zwingend eine kostengünstige Speicherung des variabel von Wind und Sonne erzeugten erneuerbaren Stromes benötigt. Die hierfür benötigte Speicherkapazität kann durch eine Vielzahl von Maßnahmen optimiert und reduziert werden: an die jeweilige Region angepasste Verteilung von installierter PV- und Windleistung, Demand-Side-Management, Einbeziehung der Wettervorhersage in das Lastmanagement und vieles mehr.

Am Beispiel der Li-Ionen-Technologie wird mit einer Preis-Erfahrungs-Kurve für dieses Produkt gezeigt, wie sich mit der Zunahme der insgesamt installierten Batteriekapazität die Preise ähnlich drastisch reduzieren werden, wie dies in den vergangenen 15 Jahren bei den PV-Modulen und -Wechselrichtern der Fall war.

Download: 160901_Plus.pdf

 

Importance of and Evidence for cost efficient electricity storage - Price Experience Curve for Li-ion batteries

Presentation given in München at Intersolar 2015

The importance for cost efficient electricity storage is highlighted if Germany’s load curve is considered to be powered by renewables (mainly wind and PV) only. The astonishing predictive power of Price Experience Curves (PEC) is demonstrated for semiconductors, flat panel displays and PV modules. Based on the historical development of Li-ion batteries it is shown how a PEC for cellular phone (Wh) and automotive (kWh) applications can be calculated and at which cumulated volume a price of $100/kWh cell price can be reached.

If this is assumed to happen in 2030 the corresponding annual growth rate for the cumulated volume would be 31% - ambitious, but reasonable if we compare this with demonstrated 41% growth for the PV industry between 2000 and 2010. Including battery assembly and financing cost we then arrive at $0.05/kWh stored electricity. This storage cost together with the LCOE for PV electricity will be able to bisect the cost per 100 km for an electric car compared with a conventional fossil driven one.

Download: 150611_Intersolar_PEC_LIB.pdf

 

Forecast 2030: stored electricity at $0.05/kWh

Interview with Michael Fuhs, pv magazine

Winfried Hoffmann, a well-known figure throughout the PV world, has created a learning curve for battery storage that predicts costs will fall much faster than many experts believe. Winfried Hoffmann predicts that average energy storage costs are likely to fall by 7% per year based on current learning curves. Solarpraxis/Andreas Schlegel "Experts in their own field are often unable to imagine how fast prices can fall," Winfried Hoffmann of the consulting firm ASE told pv magazine. The former CTO of Applied Materials was one of the pioneers who, at an early stage, analyzed and employed the learning curve for solar modules which has, with hindsight, proved to be accurate. Now Hoffmann has applied the same method to the cost trend of lithium-ion battery cells - with equally amazing results, as he outlined in a presentation at this week's EU PVSEC in Amsterdam.

Download: 140926_PV_Magazine_Fuhs_LIB_Forecast_2030.pdf

 

PV AS ONE OF THE MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS TO A FUTURE 100% RENEWABLY POWERED WORLD – IMPORTANCE AND EVIDENCE FOR COST EFFECTIVE ELECTRICITY STORAGE

Paper in proceedings of PVSEC in Amsterdam 2014

Download: 140918_PVSEC_PV_as_on_of_the_major_evidence_for_cost_eff_storage.pdf


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