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Erstellt: 13. September 2019

PVSEC Marseille - New approach for future cost and price predictions

In this paper a new cost model methodology is introduced which allows to predict future module costs and prices based on technology learning and price experience. As point of reference for the cost model the major cost parameters for producing wafers, cells and modules are analyzed for the year 2018. Similar to Price Experience Curves with characteristic Price Experience Factors (PEF) we have introduced Technology Learning Factors (TLF) which allow for the various technology and cost parameters an extrapolation to cumulated volumes of wafers, cells and modules produced in the future. If the resulting future prices are inserted into today’s PEC for modules a good correlation is seen compared to the historical PEC extrapolation without the need of bending or shifting. Assuming realistic, yet ambitious, market growth rates allow the determination of specific times for which a certain total cost and associated price will be reached. As a result it can be shown that module whole sale prices of 10 $ct/Wp are neither a dream in the long run (>2040) nor reality short term (until 2030) when fair cost calculations and margins are considered.

Download: 190913_PVSEC_Marseille_10ct module price.pdf

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