Webseminar at University Estonia
Today‘s energy situation & future CO2 - development
My contribution for the EUTECH online conference
Notwendigkeit für neue Finanzierungsmodelle
Die heutige Welt ist geprägt von einer großen Ungerechtigkeit der Energieverteilung in den reichen und armen Ländern, aber für alle ist die Notwendigkeit einer schnellen Umsetzung für eine CO2 - freie Welt bis 2050 gemäß dem Pariser Klimaziel überlebenswichtig. Beide Herausforderungen lassen sich meistern, wenn die reichen Länder ihre moralische Verpflichtung erfüllen, den armen Ländern mit geeigneten Finanzierungsinstrumenten die Möglichkeit zu erlauben, statt in fossile in erneuerbare Technologien zu investieren. Ein mögliches Finanzierungsmodell mit den notwendigen Änderungen der heutigen Kreditvergabe wird dargestellt. Die heute um einen Faktor 5 höheren Investitionskosten für Batterie und Stromspeicherung im Vergleich zu Kohlekraftwerken führen ohne Unterstützung zur Installation von fossilen Kraftwerken, mit unvorhersehbaren Folgen für uns alle.
INVESTMENTS IN AFRICA, INDIA AND SOUTH AMERICA TO REACH THE 1.5°C GOAL
This paper highlights that without appropriate long-term financing schemes most investments for energy supply in countries like Africa, India and South America unfortunately will be undertaken in fossil technologies. The simple reason is the fact that the investment necessary for a given quantity of energy per year is by a factor of ~5 less for fossil compared to renewable technologies. In an "ideal" world - zero Carbon emissions and equal energy per capita globally in the 2050s - the needed investments are 1,700 bn € annually starting in 2025 with a peak of 2,500 bn € in the mid-2030s and going to zero in the 2060s. Two additional scenarios...
WREC Lisbon - "Zero Carbon World"
First a rationale is given why we need a "Zero Carbon world" and why this will cause an energy as well as an industry transition. Second it is identified what is necessary as a future economy for not only to stay competitive with existing technologies but even more to participate in tomorrow's big industries in an international environment. With two case studies, photovoltaics and batteries, Germany as example for an old economy and China for a new economy it is concluded that old economies cannot rest on their successful old industries and if they do, new economies can kick-start new industries with appropriate boundary conditions and take the global lead.
31. July 2018
This paper gives evidence that in contrast to the old big and centralized approach with large power stations there is now a solution possible which starts bottom-up. Individual houses are no longer only consuming electricity but will also produce electricity with PV systems on their roof - they become pro-sumers. The same happens with multi-family houses, offices and SME's...
Donnerstag, 12. Januar 2017
book chapter in Springer (2017), page 55 - 93, Ali Sayigh (editor), ISBN 978-319-39280-6
The summary of the book chapter can be downloaded here 170131_Springer_W_Hoffmann_chapter.pdf
Montag, 05. Dezember 2016
Paper based on a presentation given at World Renewable Energy Council, conference in Bahrain on 5th December 2016
Vortrag an der HTWG Konstanz am 27. Februar 2015
Winfried Hoffmann, Wiley/Scrivener Publishing, ISBN 978-1-118-23790-8
It is the pretension of this book to give a comprehensive picture of today’s energy world, to describe the potential for energy savings which can be achieved and to get an understanding of technology development which will lead to a 100% renewably powered world as the most likely situation. This is based on the long-term economic and ecological superiority of renewables over traditional energy sources. It is the combination of these topics which makes the book unique.
The INTRODUCTION (Chapter 1) starts with a description of a general phenomenon, namely the fundamental changes taking place in the world we are living in today.
The IMPORTANCE OF EFFICIENCY MEASURES (Chapter 3) has nothing to do with renewable technologies but the measures described will help a lot to achieve a 100% renewable contribution sooner rather than later.
An OVERVIEW OF THE MOST IMPORTANT RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES (Chapter 4) starts with an outline of the huge potential of renewable energy resources and describes in some detail the most important renewable technologies.
The PV MARKET DEVELOPMENT (Chapter 5) not only describes the increase of PV installations over time but also addresses the boundary conditiones for new products to enter the market.
The PV VALUE CHAIN AND TECHNOLOGY (Chapter 6) summarizes the various PV technologies c-Si wafer and Thin-Film in greater detail, but also describes concentrated PV, Dye solar cells and organic devices.
THE ASTONISHING PREDICTIVE POWER OF PRICE EXPERIENCE CURVES (Chapter 7) shows impressively what even research and industry people from the same technology sector could often not believe.
The FUTURE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT (Chapter 8) is discussed for all renewable technologies. The potential price development is based on the respective Price Experience Curve.
For FUTURE ENERGY PROJECTIONS – THE 150 PW-HOUR CHALLENGE (Chapter 9), some well-known projections from the IEA and Greenpeace are shown for reference. The market development for the various renewables and their potential market share are described in some detail.
The LIKELIHOOD AND TIMELINE FOR A WORLD POWERED BY 100% RENEWABLES (Chapter 10) deals with the potential development. In CONCLUSION: THE 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY PUZZLE (Chapter 11) summarizes the findings and discussions from this book in form of a 3 by 3 element puzzle.
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